The honest answer is: it depends on your situation, not just the market. St. Johns County has remained a strong, demand-driven market, but elevated interest rates have changed the calculation for many buyers. If your personal situation supports a purchase, there are real opportunities right now — if it doesn’t, waiting has legitimate logic too.
The Market Context (Mid-2020s)
St. Johns County is not the same market it was in 2021-2022. The frantic pace, waived inspections, and offers $50K over asking are largely gone. What replaced it is a more normalized market — not a crashed market, not a buyer’s bonanza, but a more measured environment where buyers have negotiating room they didn’t have a few years ago.
Key characteristics of the current market:
- More inventory available than at the peak
- Days on market have increased
- Price reductions are more common, particularly on overpriced listings
- New construction builders are offering incentives (rate buydowns, closing cost assistance) to move inventory
This is a more buyer-friendly environment than 2021-2022, even if it’s not a “buyer’s market” in the traditional sense.
The Interest Rate Reality
This is the central variable. Rates at or above 6-7% materially affect what buyers can afford and what their monthly payment looks like on a given purchase price. There’s no point pretending otherwise.
Two things to hold in mind:
First, rates change. If rates drop, purchasing power increases — but so does competition. The buyers who are sitting out waiting for lower rates will come back into the market quickly, which historically compresses the window to negotiate.
Second, there’s a real risk in waiting for conditions to be “perfect.” If prices hold or appreciate while you wait and rates don’t drop meaningfully, you may end up buying a more expensive home at a similar rate. The math isn’t always as favorable as the wait feels.
What “Waiting” Actually Means
When buyers say they’re waiting for the right time, it’s worth being specific about what they’re waiting for:
- Waiting for lower rates: Possible. Refinancing later is an option if rates drop. But you don’t know when or how much.
- Waiting for prices to drop: St. Johns County has strong underlying demand drivers — job growth in Northeast Florida, continued inbound migration, and a school district that draws buyers. There’s no obvious catalyst for a significant price correction here.
- Waiting until you’re ready: This is legitimate. If you’re not financially prepared, not sure about your employment situation, or not committed to staying in the area for at least 3-5 years, waiting is the right call.
New Construction Incentives Are Real Right Now
One of the better opportunities in the current market: new construction builders in St. Johns County are actively offering incentives that weren’t available when the market was hot. Permanent rate buydowns, contributed closing costs, and flex cash toward upgrades are real and negotiable.
These incentives can meaningfully reduce your effective rate and initial out-of-pocket cost. This window won’t last indefinitely — as conditions shift and builder inventory clears, incentives typically pull back.
If you were already considering new construction, now is a better time to negotiate than it was 18-24 months ago.
The Longer-Term Case for St. Johns County
Beyond timing the market, there’s a structural argument for St. Johns County: it’s one of the fastest-growing counties in Florida, driven by job growth in Northeast Florida and Jacksonville’s continued economic development, a school district that consistently draws buyers, and a geographic position that provides access to beaches, Jacksonville, and major employers without sacrificing quality of life. These factors don’t go away. Long-term, the demand drivers here are genuine.
Questions to Ask Yourself
- Do I plan to stay in this area for at least 3-5 years? (If no, buying may not make financial sense regardless of market conditions.)
- Is my employment stable and my down payment ready?
- Can I comfortably afford the full carrying cost at today’s rates, including taxes, insurance, HOA, and potential CDD fees?
- Would I regret waiting and buying later at a higher price if rates stay elevated?
If you can answer those questions honestly, the timing question becomes more personal than macro.
Josh Rogers leads F3 Home Team — the #1 team in Jacksonville by sales volume (RealTrends) for 3 consecutive years, and #1 in all of Northeast Florida (Jacksonville & St. Johns County) in 2026. Based in St. Johns County, FL, F3 Home Team has helped over 1,500 buyers and sellers since 2016 find the right home — from relocation buyers moving from out of state to local homeowners upgrading into their forever neighborhood. If you have questions about buying in St. Johns County, reach out at StJohnsWithJosh.com.
If you’d like to talk through the specific numbers for your situation in St. Johns County, reach out to Josh Rogers with the F3 Home Team at StJohnsWithJosh.com/contact.
